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The ABC has a look at the coal seam gas industry - Water, salt and carbon in the coal seam gas future.

An ABC investigative report into coal seam gas extraction, suggests the industry will bring about a massive redirection of the water system in Australia.

The ABC has launched Coal Seam Gas: By the Numbers, a website that maps the coal seam gas industry and explores its impact on water resources into the future.

The project calculates the amount of water which will be drawn from the ground as a result of gas extraction from the coal seam, considers waste materials collected and approaches to managing that waste.

ABC investigative reporters have used data and information from many sources, including environmental impact studies commissioned by mining companies at the request of Governments.

Investigative reporter Wendy Carlisle says "the research shows a large number of coal seam gas leases coincide with major underground water supplies used by farmers."

"What it shows is in broad terms coal seam gas will engineer a massive redirection of the water system in Australia.

"Landholders and governments dont yet know the impact this will have. It is the great coal seam gas experiment."

There will be as many as 40,000 gas wells in Australia in less than 20 years.

The article refers to this background piece -Coal Seam Gas - By The Numbers.

Coal seam gas has emerged as a major industry in Australia in little more than a decade.

The scale and speed of its growth has been nothing short of astonishing: billions of dollars have poured into regional areas; new jobs have been created; state and national coffers have swelled; export contracts have been signed and sealed; massive liquefied natural gas facilities have been approved for construction at regional ports.

Farmers fear they are losing control of their land. Miners and some politicians say coal seam gas offers a much greener energy choice. Environmentalists and other politicians have cast doubt on those claims.

The ABCs data journalism project has pulled together information from dozens of sources to provide an insight into the promise and the dangers inherent in the coal seam gas rush.

Did you know:

- it is estimated there will be at least 40,000 coal seam gas wells in Australia by 2030?
- conservative estimates suggest coal seam gas wells could draw 300 gigalitres of water from the ground each year?
- the industry could produce as much greenhouse gas as all the cars on the road in Australia?
- modelling suggests the industry could produce 31 million tonnes of waste salt over the next 30 years? ...

Over the next 20 years coal seam gas operations are expected to continue expanding.

The Queensland Government has approved up to 40,000 wells, and as more gas is discovered it is likely that number will rise. ...



How much water will the CSG industry use?

Australias Great Artesian Basin and its underground aquifers are a vital source of water; farmers and other bore users are given allocations for their use.

By 2014, the Commonwealth will have spent nearly $150 million under the Great Artesian Basin Sustainability Initiative, capping bores and fixing pipes to conserve water.

The coal seam gas industry is entitled to remove massive amounts of water from groundwater systems.

The Queensland Government says that if CSG mining causes groundwater levels to drop below specified "trigger" points then companies must "make good" to affected water users. The trigger points are:

- a five-metre drop in the level of agriculture bores; and
- a 0.2 of a metre drop in the water table surrounding naturally occurring springs, creeks and rivers.

The make-good arrangements have not yet been fully spelt out by government.

In addition to these provisions, the forthcoming Murray Basin Plan will set limits on groundwater extraction, including by the CSG industry. The states must enact these limits by 2019.

There is a fierce debate about the amount of water the coal seam gas industry will extract from underground, and what impact it may have on the sustainability of the Great Artesian Basin.

The industry suggests it will pull out somewhere between 126 gigalitres and 280 gigalitres a year, while the National Water Commission puts the figure above 300 gigalitres a year. Others, including the Water Group advising the Federal Government, suggest it is higher still.

I watched the second episode of "All watched over by machines of loving grace" today and found it interesting but mildly annoying.

Id noted the parallels in the first episode to Fred Turners book "From Counterculture To Cyberculture", so I wasnt particularly surprised to see Turner make an appearance in this episode, along with Stewart Brand, and the tracing of these ideas back to Bucky Fuller.

What was new about this episode was the repeating of common misconceptions about "The Limits To Growth" and the strange line of reasoning that seemed to argue that the search for "equilibrium" (ie. a scenario where our overall impact on the environment is trimmed to the point where we dont end up having the population crash as we overwhelm the planets carrying capacity) that "Limits" undertakes is really arguing for a form of political stasis where no radical change is to be contemplated.

While this may have been a goal of the Technocrats that preceded them, it doesnt ring true for the systems theorists.

Curtis even notes that Jay Forrester and the "Limits" crew explicitly said they werent considering politics, but discounts this as a form of dishonesty rather than accepting that the book is just outlining scenarios around resource consumption, population and pollution rather than being a political manifesto (which would have been entirely counterproductive).

Where is does veer towards politics (in the section entitled "Transitions to a sustainable system", where it prescribes the changes required to make our global economy sustainable), the practices recommended are both positive and a change from the general status quo today - it doesnt read like a manual for perpetuating elite control and forbidding political change, with the non-technical recommendations including :

* poverty reduction
* nonviolent conflict resolution
* accurate/unbiased media
* “decentralisation of economic power, political influence and scientific expertise”
* “stable populations” and “low birth rates” by “individual choice”

Curtis main point (like Turners before him) - that the counterculture / hippie / cyberculture ideal of a world without politics is a fantasy - is valid, but he really goes off the rails trying to blame the systems theorists and ecologists for the problems of the world today.

The section about the colour revolutions in eastern europe, in particular, seemed wildly off base - he assumes that this genuinely was a case of leaderless uprising spontaneously organised via network culture - when instead they were orchestrated from the US to expand western influence at the expense of the Russians - and naturally enough faltered once the population realised that their interests werent really being advanced at all by the changes (just as well most likely see with the current "Arab Spring" equivalent).

ReNew Economy has a report on research that may result in a massive tax bill for the coal seam gas industry - Gas industry rattled by findings of triple normal levels of methane.

LEVELS of the potent greenhouse gas methane have been recorded at more than three times their normal background levels at coal seam gas fields in Australia, raising questions about the true climate change impact of the booming industry.

The findings, which have been submitted both for peer review and to the Federal Department of Climate Change, also raise doubts about how much the export-driven coal seam gas (CSG) industry should pay under the country’s carbon price laws.

Southern Cross University (SCU) researchers Dr Isaac Santos and Dr Damien Maher used a hi-tech measuring device attached to a vehicle to compare levels of methane in the air at different locations in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The gas industry was quick to attack their findings and the scientists themselves.

The Queensland government has already approved several major multi-billion dollar CSG projects worth more than $60 billion, all of which are focussed on converting the gas to export-friendly liquefied natural gas (LNG).

More than 30,000 gas wells will be drilled in the state in the coming decades and the industry has estimated between 10 per cent and 40 per cent of the wells will undergo hydraulic fracturing.

The industry and state and federal ministers have claimed that electricity derived from coal seam gas will help slow growth in carbon emissions but, so far, no comprehensive independent lifecycle assessment of emissions has been carried out.

Last August, a Right to Information request submitted by me and reported in the Brisbane Times revealed that the state’s government was prepared to rely on industry-funded research when it came to understanding the industry’s carbon footprint.

A later report from the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, which looked at emissions from CSG when burned for electricity in China, was produced by Worley Parsons, a company which had won a $580 million contract to work on a major CSG-to-LNG project in the state.

The Federal Energy Minister Martin Ferguson has also waved away suggestions that the government should commission its own independent research into CSG emissions, and was reported as saying such a study was “unnecessary”.

The work at Southern Cross University is arguably the first attempt to independently measure levels of methane coming from gasfield areas.

Dr Santos said in a university release: “The current discussions on CSG are often based on anecdotal evidence, old observations not designed to assess CSG or data obtained overseas. We believe universities are independent institutions that should provide hard data to inform this discussion. The lack of site-specific baseline data is staggering.”

In an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Dr Maher said while it was not possible yet to say “definitively” that the raised levels of methane were due to leaks from the CSG facilities, “we have multiple lines of evidence to suggest that that is what is causing it”. He said the initial findings pointed to the CSG operations as a likely source of the raised methane levels – in particular, from “fugitive emissions.

RNE has a look at the energy efficiency revolution in lighting - LEDs will slash energy use for lighting by 95%.

A simple (but not perfect) measure for lighting efficiency is the number of lumens (a measure of light intensity) a lighting source produces per watt. A conventional incandescent bulb gets 13 lumens per watt to light your room, while a replacement LED bulb from Philips that can be bought at Coles or Woolworths achieves 80 lumens per watt (a compact fluorescent globe gets about 60 lumens per watt).

CREE (the industry leader who, it is speculated, may purchase the next best, Philips’ Lumileds division) has successfully demonstrated Light Emitting Diodes running at 300 Lumens per watt in the lab. CREE currently sell a $10, 9.5W bulb (available in the US), which produces 85 Lumens per watt and can directly replace an old style 60W globe.

Other breakthroughs and innovations are contributing to achieving higher efficiency’s in LED lighting, including a breakthrough by German researchers which will not only effect LED lights, but laptop and mobile phone chargers, cutting losses in today’s most efficient power supplies by half from 10% to just 5%.

Taking all this into consideration, according to the US Department of Energy SSL (Solid State Lighting) program http://energy.gov/eere/ssl/solid-state-lighting we should be able to achieve wall plug efficiencies of 250 Lumens per watt by 2020 which means that a conventional bulb replacement in 2020 would be available using only a third of the electricity of today’s LED bulbs.

At that staggering rate of 250 lumens per watt, it will only take 3W to light a room, when it used to be done with 60 Watts of power. This represents a 95% reduction in energy required for lighting.

This will have a profound effect on the world’s requirement for lighting energy. We can expect - on an absolute basis – that 19% of the world’s electricity which is currently used for lighting to dramatically drop by at least 75%. On today’s numbers the reduction is the equivalent of the entire electricity consumption of the European Union.

In developed nations these huge efficiency gains from LEDs in the lighting sector will contribute to the continuing restructure of the electricity supply industry, which is currently facing a death spiral unless it can electrify the remaining residential energy services coming from fossil gas and supply a fast tracked electrification of the world’s vehicle fleet.

In developing countries, rooms that can be lit with 3W and task lights with even lower electricity consumption. This means that almost all the remaining 1.5Billion of the world’s population without an electricity supply will be able to access one at very minimal marginal cost in the next 5 years.

Reuters has a report on declining gas production in northern Europe - UK overseas gas imports to surge to $11 billion by 2015.

Britains natural gas imports from outside the North Sea will surpass domestic production by 2015 and add more than $11 billion to import costs as domestic supplies dwindle and Norway increasingly struggles to fill the gap, Reuters research shows.

Estimates show that Britains own gas supplies will fall from around 43 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year today to around 16 bcm in 2030 if they continue their average annual 5 percent decline since peaking in 2000, while demand is set to hold steady between 85 and 95 bcm.

Britain was a net exporter of gas until 2004, but a steady decline in output over the last few years has made it more reliant on imports, which have so far mostly come from Norway and, increasingly, Qatar.

Astronomers see inside a quasar for the first time

For the first time, astronomers have looked inside quasars -- the brightest objects in the universe -- and have seen evidence of black holes.

The study lends further confirmation to what scientists have long suspected -- that quasars are made up of super-massive black holes and the super-heated disks of material that are spiraling into them.

The suspicion that quasars are powered by supermassive black holes has, until now, been based only on the fact that astrophysicists couldnt think of any other plausible explanation. The new evidence that supports this hypothesis is that it has been possible to observe what looks like a black hole accretion disk inside two quasars:

[The researchers] were able to measure the size of the so-called accretion disk around the black hole inside each quasar.

In each, the disk surrounded a smaller area that was emitting X-rays, as if the disk material was being heated up as it fell into the black hole in the center.

Further supporting their conclusion was the fact that the hightest-energy emissions (X-rays) occurred near the center of the quasar, while optical light originated much farther out. (Since gas and dust would be heated most near a central black hole.) It was possible to make these observations on two quasars only because they were magnified by gravitational lensing due to intervening massive objects, and only by by combining results from ground-based optical telescopes and the orbiting Chandra X-Ray Observatory.

Other references:

Black Holes Power the Brightest Cosmic Objects – Space.com

Quasars Under the Lens – ScienceNow (subscription rqd)

Tags: astrophysics, quasars, black holes

The Guardian reports (somewhat to my surprise) that Labor is going to try to defend the carbon tax and its transition to an emission trading scheme - Labor party signals carbon standoff by demanding emissions trading scheme.

Labor will oppose Tony Abbott’s long promised repeal of the carbon price if the Coalition fails to implement an internationally linked emissions trading scheme. ... Shadow cabinet resolved on Friday to hold Labor’s election posture on carbon pricing. Labor will allow the “tax” to go in favour of a cap on pollution and a floating carbon price from July 2014. ...

“The opposition will move amendments consistent with our pre-election commitments to terminate the carbon tax on the basis of moving to an effective emissions trading scheme,” the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, told reporters in Canberra on Friday. “However, if our amendments are not successful, we will oppose the government’s repeal legislation in line with our long held principled position to act on climate change to build a modern economy,” he said.

Shorten was asked by reporters whether the ALP would be better off politically rolling over and accepting Abbott’s mandate to abolish the carbon “tax”. He replied Labor would “never be a rubber stamp for Tony Abbott”. “We won’t be bullied by Tony Abbott because he doesn’t accept the science of climate change,” Shorten said.

BusinessWeek has a report on Kenyas plans for exploiting geothermal power - Kenya Aims to Make Geothermal Energy Main Power Source By 2014.

Kenya, Africa’s largest producer of geothermal power, is aiming for the energy supply to surpass hydro as the top contributor to the country’s electricity grid by 2014, said Silas Simiyu, chief executive officer of the state-owned Geothermal Development Co.

A 10-year, $2.6 billion exploration plan will involve sinking 566 wells in the Great Rift Valley, where shifting tectonic plates provide a key source of the energy, the company said in a statement yesterday. GDC is expected to begin drilling in Menengai in central Kenya this week, with an initial aim to find sufficient reserves to feed a 400-megawatt facility by 2014, Simiyu told reporters yesterday.

Over the next decade, the company aims to discover 2,336 megawatts of steam produced by hot underground rocks that boil water. The vapors are used to power turbines. Geothermal energy currently accounts for 12 percent of Kenya’s 1,405 megawatts of generation, including an installed capacity of 212 megawatts at a plant at Olkaria, about 120 kilometers (75 miles) outside of Nairobi, the capital.

“We should not see a situation of power shortages like we had before,” Simiyu said.

Drought in Kenya two years ago depleted water levels at hydropower dams, which supplies 55 percent of the country’s electricity. The resulting power rationing between August and October 2009 hindered growth in East Africa’s largest economy.

Kenya estimates the extent of its unexploited resources ranges between 7,000 megawatts and 10,000 megawatts at 14 “high- potential” locations valued at $30 billion, according to the statement.

RenewEconomy has an article on an ANU study of growth in renewable power generation in Australia - Solar, wind could replace all fossil fuels in Australia by 2040.

Solar and wind energy could replace all fossil fuels in Australia by 2040 if their recent rate of deployment is maintained and slightly increased over the next 27 years – delivering the country with a 100% renewable electricity grid “by default” as early as 2040.

The stunning conclusions come from research from Andrew Blakers, the director of the Australian National University’s Centre for Sustainable Energy Systems. It notes that nearly all new electricity generation capacity in recent years has been wind and solar photovoltaics (PV), and demand has also ben falling since 2008.

Blakers says that if this situation continues then Australia will achieve renewable electricity system by 2040, as existing fossil fuel power stations retire at the end of their service lives and are replaced with renewables.

And the cost will be no greater than having fossil fuels because, as Bloomberg New Energy Finance notes, wind is already cheaper than new coal or gas-fired generation and solar soon will be. These are the critical points – because renewables are often painted as expensive when compared to fully-depreciated, 40 years fossil fuel plants. But not compared with the new capacity required to replace ageing fossil fuel fleet.

Blakers says his scenario works even using the more conservative technology cost forecasts prepared by the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics. These forecasts are being updated, but they came to similar conclusions as BNEF on technology cost trends, just not quite as quickly.

The 100% by 2040 scenario is probably not that much different in scope to current trends. Australia was sitting at around 10 per cent renewables in 2010, and will probably end up with at least 25 per cent by 2020, given current trends on rooftop solar and the fixed 41,000GWh target for large scale renewables.